Fed Watch: Fed Funds Rate & FOMC
Target range3.75–4.00%FOMC
Effective fed funds3.88%NY Fed, 2026-10-28
SOFR3.94%NY Fed, 2026-10-28
Next decisionDec 9in 41 days, 2:00 PM ET
The 2-year Treasury yields 4.62%, 74 bp above effective fed funds, above the policy rate, so the market is pricing a higher path. The 3-month bill sits 22 bp above it.
Front End vs. Fed Funds
| Yield | vs EFFR bp | 1m bp | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1M Treasury | 3.967% | +9 | 0 |
| 3M Treasury | 4.097% | +22 | -13 |
| 6M Treasury | 4.289% | +41 | -14 |
| 1Y Treasury | 4.396% | +52 | -15 |
| 2Y Treasury | 4.615% | +74 | -31 |
FOMC Schedule
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Wed, Nov 18, 20262:00 PM ET | FOMC minutes (Oct meeting) |
| Wed, Dec 9, 20262:00 PM ET | FOMC decision + projections |
| Wed, Jan 27, 20272:00 PM ET | FOMC rate decision |
Yield Curve ›
Now1 month ago1 year ago
2s10s +33 bp · 3m10s +85 bp · 5s30s +54 bp
Policy Rates & Treasuries
| Level | Chg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed fundstarget 3.75–4.00% | 3.88% | EFFR | 10-28 |
| SOFRNY Fed | 3.94% | -1 bp | 10-28 |
| US 3M | 4.097% | -0.5 bp | -0.12% |
| US 2Y | 4.615% | -7.0 bp | -1.49% |
| US 5Y | 4.759% | -6.2 bp | -1.29% |
| US 10Y | 4.949% | -5.4 bp | -1.08% |
| US 30Y | 5.304% | -2.7 bp | -0.51% |
Meeting dates from the Federal Reserve FOMC calendar. Effective fed funds and SOFR are published by the New York Fed each business morning for the prior day. Market read is derived from Treasury yields, not fed funds futures.
Fed & Economy Headlines
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- 3hEconomyVIEW ECB keeps rates unchanged; euro and bond yields fallReuters
- 4hEconomyECB keeps December rate hike on the table amid mounting inflation risksReuters
- 4hEconomyUS Economy Grows a Faster-Than-Expected 3.4%, Most in a YearBloomberg
- 4hEconomyThe Fed's decision to hold interest rates steady helps Warsh deny Tehran a say over monetary policyFortune
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- 6hEconomyTrump Administration Promised Tariff Relief in Talks to Secure U.S. Audi FactoryWSJ
- 7hEconomyHong Kong's housing minister resigns after fire investigation finds inadequate oversightAP
- 7hEconomyU.S. Economy Picked Up Speed, With GDP at 3.4% Rate in Third QuarterWSJ
- 7hEconomyThird-quarter U.S. GDP increases a better-than-expected 3.4% as September inflation acceleratesCNBC
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- 13hEconomyThe Fed plays for time (but doesn’t have much)FT
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- 21hEconomyFor the first time since 1992, a Fed governor and president dissented together, as Kevin Warsh says the 'monetary medicine' is starting to workFortune
- 21hEconomyTrump Delays Robotics, Machinery Tariffs in Favor of More TalksBloomberg
- 22hEconomyFed holds fire on interest rates despite intensifying inflationFT
- 23hPolicy & DataFOMC Press Conference, October 28, 2026: Chairman Warsh quote #shortsFederal Reserve
- 23hPolicy & DataFOMC Introductory Statement, October 28, 2026Federal Reserve
- 1dEconomyFed holds rates steady days before the midterms, even as inflation runs hotFortune
- 1dPolicy & DataLIVE NOW: Press conference with #FOMC Chairman Warsh: www.federalreserve.gov and www.youtube.com/federalreserveFederal Reserve
- 1dEconomyOver the next decade, the U.S. Treasury will spend $20 trillion in interest on the national debt—$200 billion a month by 2036Fortune
- 1dEconomyFed leaves rates steady as governor Lisa Cook dissentsAxios
- 1dPolicy & DataFederal Reserve issues FOMC statementFederal Reserve
- 1dEconomyFed meeting today: Hot inflation keeps pressure on Warsh over next interest-rate hike — live updatesMarketWatch
- 1dEconomyUN condemns US economic embargo of Cuba though some nations sit out after Trump administration pushAP
- 1dEconomyUK Treasury chief faces headwinds as he delivers first budget under new prime minister, Andy BurnhamAP
- 6dPolicy & DataFederal Reserve Board - Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States - H.8 - October 23, 2026Federal Reserve
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